Canadian Realestate Magazine forum is the place for positive industry interaction and welcomes your professional and informed opinion.

Canadian economy could be first to stumble in 2011: Scotia Capital

Notify me of new replies via email
guest | 14 Sep 2011, 03:01 PM Agree 0

Report authors Derek Holt and Karen Cordes Woods said Canada could contract again in the third quarter of this year after contracting 0.4% in the second quarter. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in real gross domestic product (GDP).“This wasn’t supposed to happen,” said Scotia Bank report authors. “Many of the world’s troubles were supposed to be focused upon Europe and the U.S. Yet we’re faced with the distinct possibility that the Canadian economy could be the first to stumble.”A similar prediction was made by TD Economics last month. Economists there said that while the U.S. will likely avoid a recession in 2011, any unexpected downward shift could still lead to a Canadian recession of its own.Holt and Cordes Woods went further, saying the Canadian economy could enter a recession even without a further unexpected drop in the U.S. economy. An inventory pull-back, flat housing contributions to GDP, and decline in machinery and equipment could be enough to tilt the overall GDP downwards, they said. The Scotia Capital economists also criticized positive forecasts of the U.S. and Canadian economies made late last year.“The bulls have a lot of work left to do in explaining once more why their 3% to 4% growth views for Canada and the U.S. didn’t pan out – yet again – either in their numbers that serve multiple audiences, or more importantly through their rhetoric that said they actually believed what they were forecasting,” wrote Holt and Cordes Woods.While the Scotia Capital report didn’t name names, a December 2010 forecast by TD Economics predicted U.S. real GDP growth to reach 3% in 2011, while also predicting the Canadian economy to expand by 2.6%.
  • daniel | 14 Sep 2011, 11:14 PM Agree 0
    greed and holding out on putting money back out there, is and has allways been the main problem! make money and spend money it has to go around to come around , buy something from someone or hire someone you cant take it with you if you can do something good with your money its one person youve bless mabe
  • daniel | 15 Sep 2011, 12:14 AM Agree 0
    greed and holding out on putting money back out there, is and has allways been the main problem! make money and spend money it has to go around to come around , buy something from someone or hire someone you cant take it with you if you can do something good with your money its one person youve bless mabe
  • Vipul Shukla, DDS | 15 Sep 2011, 04:16 PM Agree 0
    This analysis hits the issue on the head! Personally, I think that local and regional economy is what we must concentrate on, not global numbers. Greece's economic downfall has hardly an impact on a Canadian new graduate looking for work in Toronto. What we must concentrate on is what is happening in our own backyard. Yes, the American economy has a direct impact on Canadian fiscal policies, but the Harper government has been smart in opening up new avenues of trade relations with countries other than the US. And it's about time. To increase the GDP, we must bring back the manufacturing jobs that have been lost (and continue to) to China, Mexico and Honduras. Manufacturing was always the backbone of Ontario and Quebec, and hence the great Canadian North!
    If Obama can have a 'Buy American' policy, why can't Canadians? I feel the US will hurt more from such 'blinkers-on outlook'. Instead they could advocate 'Buy North American' and we will not object to Target opening 130 stores in Canada in the next 2 years, and Walmart opening another 75! It has to be a Give and Take relationship.
    Europe matters little to us, but what local municipal and provincial governments do matter a lot; and the US. Just my 2 cents of opinion.
  • Vipul Shukla, DDS | 15 Sep 2011, 05:16 PM Agree 0
    This analysis hits the issue on the head! Personally, I think that local and regional economy is what we must concentrate on, not global numbers. Greece's economic downfall has hardly an impact on a Canadian new graduate looking for work in Toronto. What we must concentrate on is what is happening in our own backyard. Yes, the American economy has a direct impact on Canadian fiscal policies, but the Harper government has been smart in opening up new avenues of trade relations with countries other than the US. And it's about time. To increase the GDP, we must bring back the manufacturing jobs that have been lost (and continue to) to China, Mexico and Honduras. Manufacturing was always the backbone of Ontario and Quebec, and hence the great Canadian North!
    If Obama can have a 'Buy American' policy, why can't Canadians? I feel the US will hurt more from such 'blinkers-on outlook'. Instead they could advocate 'Buy North American' and we will not object to Target opening 130 stores in Canada in the next 2 years, and Walmart opening another 75! It has to be a Give and Take relationship.
    Europe matters little to us, but what local municipal and provincial governments do matter a lot; and the US. Just my 2 cents of opinion.
Post a reply