BoC warns over overvalued housing market
The Bank of Canada has joined the voices saying that Canada’s housing market is over-valued but a new report forecasts a moderation of prices in the coming year. The central bank has used a new model to work out overvaluation in the market and has for the first time issued its own forecast. No real surprises though as the range of between 10 and 30 per cent covers most of the estimates revealed by other organizations. Read the full story.
Prices set to moderate in 2015
Even in the hottest property markets the next 12 months should see an easing of the fast pace of price growth. A new report from Re/Max predicts that there will be steady but more moderate growth than has been seen in 2014. It forecasts that nationally the average house price will grow by 2.5 per cent next year to $416,300. For the major markets there is an expectation of growth higher than that although the pace will be about half what it has been this year. So Toronto
is predicted to see a 4 per cent rise next year compared to this year’s growth of 8.3 per cent; Vancouver
’s rise is set to be 3 per cent compared to 7.3 per cent this year; Calgary
prices are also expected to grow 3 per cent while this year has seen 5.9 per cent. Meanwhile some of the more affordable areas this year may see a sharper rise in prices next year than in the past 12 months. Read the full story
Calgary housing market expected to be steady despite oil prices
While some are predicting a downturn in the housing market in Alberta due to the lower oil prices, a local real estate board is more upbeat. Calgary Real Estate Board says that it expects the market to be steady with net migration and employment forecasts currently positive, although Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB’s chief economist says: “Concerns over the potential impact will influence consumer confidence. This is expected to cause supply and demand to ease in 2015, maintaining resale market balance and keeping prices relatively stable.” While conditions may be less favourable the board is not expecting to see a large scale pullback from the market.
1 in 8 households at risk from higher interest rates
The Bank of Canada is warning that 1 in 8 households, about 12 per cent, are at the greatest risk from a rise in interest rates due to their levels of debt. They are the ones whose debt levels are more than twice their income. While the bank is not suggesting that those with the highest debt burdens are necessarily in danger of defaults the underlying suggestion is that households would be well advised to reduce their exposure to higher rates.
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