Experts weigh in on the loonie’s near-future trajectory

With the Canadian dollar temporarily breaching the 80-cent mark on May 2, observers continue to wonder if the loonie—which is enjoying the tailwinds of a weaker U.S. dollar—will have legs to sustain its momentum.
 
Speaking to The Globe and Mail, several experts have weighed in on the likely paths that the currency (77.82 cents as of morning May 4) might take in the near future, after a strong comeback from a record low of nearly 68 cents back in January.
 
Jasper Lawler, CMC Markets London: Anywhere above 83 cents is a possibility, but only if currently volatile oil prices stabilize. “It’s been quite a winning streak.”
 
Kit Juckes, chief of foreign exchange, Société Générale: Around 83.5 cents, again depending on the petroleum sector. “That’s a realistic target, after which it gets slower,” he said. “But while the Fed’s on hold and oil’s not falling, there’s no great pressure to go back down.”
 
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, market analyst, London Capital Group: The loonie’s long-term strength is uncertain, as oil might have already reached a breaking point. She added that the possibility of a decline in oil prices would “compromise the loonie’s strength above the 80-cents mark.”

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