In-depth look at BC’s latest housing forecast

It’s home to Canada’s hottest housing market, which is poised to break sales records this year. But how does the future look for all of B.C. real estate?

“The BC economy is growing at a strong pace, with the resulting surge in employment inducing elevated consumer confidence,” the British Columbia Real Estate Association said in its latest housing forecast update. “Indicative of provincial economic performance, households are buying everything from apparel to real estate at above average levels.”

Housing market conditions vary in terms of expected performance, accord to CREA, with norther regions continuing to cater to buyers and the southern part of the province favouring sellers.

Overall, the province is expected to see 113,000 total homes sold this year before giving way to softer conditions in 2017, when 104,400 total home sales are forecast. That would represent a 7.8% total drop.

Starts, meanwhile, are expected to see an uptick of 31.1% this year – with 41,300 total homes expected to begin construction – before dropping 13.8% next year (35,600 expected starts).

The average price in British Columbia is expected to increase 11% year-over-year in 2016 to $706,900. Those gains aren’t expected to continue, with 2017’s average forecast expected to come in at $743,700 (+5.2%).

The Greater Vancouver area has seen unprecedented price growth but even that is expected to moderate slightly.

The region is expected to see a 14.1% jump in average price by the end of the year, with the average home selling for $1,030,000 before moderating slightly in 2017, when the average price is expected to be $1,090,000 (+5.8%).


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