Analysts are already be pooh-poohing the Central Bank's warning about a potential collapse of that real estate segment if developers don't slacken the pace of construction.
"Even if demand fell 50 per cent in the condo rental market," said Ben Myers, VP of condo market research firm Urbanation, "we'd still be in a balanced market."
The comments come on the heels of a fresh warning from the Bank of Canada, now pointing to condo development in the GTA that continues at the same frenetic pace as last summer, that despite a 20 per cent drop in sales over the last several months.
The market is also grappling with a significant spike in unsold inventory as a growing number of buyers find themselves shut out by tighter mortgage rules.
That backdrop makes the number of cranes on the Toronto landscape a cause for concern, said the Bank Thursday.
“The total number of housing units under construction has been increasing and is now well above its historic average relative to the population,” writes the Bank of Canada in its Financial System Review. “This development is entirely accounted for by multiple-unit dwellings (which include condominium units), especially in major metropolitan areas.”
Still, Myers and other analysts appear less concerned, pointing to continuing strenght in the condo rental market, especially for one-bedroom units. That popularity extends to homebuyers, increasingly keen, because of tighter mortgage rules, for smaller, cheaper units.
Others point to immigration as another reason those construction site cranes could, and indeed should, continue to dot the Toronto skyline.