“After [last week’s] blowout GDP figures, we now see little reason for the BoC to wait before hiking interest rates again,” Shenfeld wrote in a client note, adding that it is a close call due to the strength of the loonie.
However, while the BoC governor Stephen Poloz is concerned about the strong currency, Shenfeld says that in comparison to a basket of currencies being watched by the central bank, the loonie is weaker than it was at the time of the previous hike.
On a positive note for mortgages, Shenfeld predicts that an interest rate increase will be accompanied by a statement that no further rates are imminent, having reversed the two previous cuts.
Shenfeld is in a minority calling for a rate rise this month with 24 of 33 economists polled by Reuters expecting no change until at least October.
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The Bank of Canada is expected to increase interest rates this week according to CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld.