Scotiabank: BC to lead provincial growth in 2020, Alberta in 2021

by Steve Randall18 Oct 2019

Three Canadian provinces are set to lead economic growth among the provinces over a three year period.

Scotiabank Economics’ Q4 Provincial Economic Outlook puts Quebec in the lead for 2019 with BC leading in 2020 and Alberta in 2021.

"Lifted by firm job creation and an upswing in machinery and equipment investment, Quebec will lead the provinces in economic growth in 2019," said Marc Desormeaux, Provincial Economist at Scotiabank. "Work related to the LNG Canada venture in Kitimat should propel BC to the top of the table in 2020, with an uptick in investment activity expected to drive Alberta's growth in 2021."

Key points:

  • Population Growth: This year's population upsurge has persisted—and accelerated in some regions—which limits downside across a number of provinces.
  • Job Creation: Above-trend employment growth remains key to the forecast expansion in many jurisdictions in 2019.
  • Fiscal Policy: The provinces continue to take different financial and economic management approaches, but generally improving balances in many major economies are on a positive trend.
  • International Trade: Risks related to Sino-US trade tensions, the Sino-Canadian diplomatic skirmish and the possibility of an uncertainty-led global economic slowdown remain in place.

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