USMCA has given consumer confidence a boost

by Steve Randall23 Oct 2018

The new trilateral trade deal between Canada, the US, and Mexico has prompted a rise in confidence among Canadian consumers.

The weekly Bloomberg/Nanos Research Canadian Confidence Index has increased to 57.43 compared to 55.65 four weeks ago and is up more than a point from last week.

The sub-index tracking sentiment surrounding personal finances and job security edged lower (60.85 vs. 61.45 four weeks ago) but there was a sharp rise for the sub-index which tracks expectations for the economy and real estate prices (54.01 vs. 49.86 four weeks ago).

“Positive sentiment on the future strength of the Canadian economy has increased five points in the last four weeks,” said Nanos Research, Chief Data Scientist, Nik Nanos. “Also of note, sentiment on real estate values has registered an increase in positive views.”

The share of respondents who are positive about real estate prices increased from 39.20% last week and 37.76% four weeks ago, to 41.41 this week. That beats both the 2018 average of 40.45% and the 10-year average of 37.86%.

On personal finances, the share of respondents who say they are worse off than a year ago (23.31%) is larger than those who say they are better off (19.95%) but most (55.74%) say there has been no change.

Almost half say they are confident about their job security.

Sentiment overall increased for all provinces and age groups, and all income groups apart from those earning $75,000 and above.

Homeowners’ sentiment grew more than renters.

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