In Q4 2024, Alberta’s real estate sectors showed varied trends. The residential market grew modestly despite low inventory and a high sales-to-listing ratio. Rental trends differed across cities like Calgary, Edmonton, and Lethbridge. Both Edmonton and Calgary saw increased industrial supply paired with strong net absorption, though each market had its own nuances. Meanwhile, the office market in Edmonton outperformed, while Calgary’s downtown and suburban areas adjusted to shifting demand.
Residential Summary for Q4 2024
An Edge Realty Analytics report highlighted several key trends in Alberta’s residential market based on the provincial chart deck data.
Sales
Residential sales in Alberta declined by 2.5% quarter-over-quarter but increased by 7.9% year-over-year, indicating that despite short-term softness, the market has grown over the past year.
Listings
New listings dropped by 3.3% from Q3 2024, while active listings fell significantly by 10.1% quarter-over-quarter and 5.9% year-over-year. This reduction in available properties underscores a tightening market environment.
Prices
Home prices in the province increased modestly by 0.6% compared to Q3 2024 and showed a 5.0% rise on a year-over-year basis, suggesting a stable yet gradually appreciating market.
Under Construction
The volume of housing units under construction decreased by 1.3% sequentially, although there was a 4.0% increase year-over-year, reflecting ongoing, albeit slower, development activity.
Economic Indicators
Alberta’s population grew by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter and 3.9% year-over-year. The unemployment rate improved slightly from 7.4% in Q3 2024 to 7.2% in Q4 2024, while mortgage arrears remained steady at 0.30%.
Months of Inventory
The months of inventory—a measure of how long it would take to sell the current listings—declined from 2.4 in Q3 2024 to 2.3 in Q4 2024, signalling a market with brisk absorption.
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
The sales-to-new listings ratio improved from 68.7% in Q3 2024 to 72.9% in Q4 2024, indicating that a higher proportion of new listings are being absorbed by the market.
Source: Rentals.ca
Source: Rentals.ca
Industrial Market in Q4 2024
In Edmonton, CBRE noted that several large transactions paired with a quiet construction year helped reduce market availability by 60 basis points, dipping below 5.0% for the first time since Q2 2015. The market has seen over 2.6 million square feet of positive net absorption for four consecutive years, with sublease space making up 16.4% of available supply. Additionally, nearly 754,000 square feet of new supply was delivered—66.3% of which was pre-leased—bringing the total new space in 2024 to 1.6 million square feet.
In Calgary’s industrial market, the mid-bay sector drove positive trends. Despite 5.6 million square feet of new inventory added in 2024, the overall availability only increased by 30 basis points to 5.8%. In Q4, six speculative buildings with over 1.4 million square feet (32.8% pre-leased) and 456,000 square feet of design-build projects brought nearly 1.9 million square feet of new supply. Inventory under construction fell to 1.3 million square feet.
Office Market in Q4 2024
In Edmonton, the office market closed 2024 with 141,000 square feet of positive net absorption and a record low vacancy rate of 19.4%—the best since Q1 2020—and marked the sixth consecutive quarter of positive absorption. Although Downtown vacancy rose by 20 basis points to 21.6%, the area ended the year with net positive absorption for the first time since 2018. Meanwhile, the Government submarket saw vacancy drop by 150 basis points to its lowest level since Q3 2018, and the Suburban market recorded its lowest vacancy since Q1 2016 at 15.8%, helped by 70,000 square feet of new Class A supply at EVER Square.
In Calgary, Downtown’s net absorption was mainly driven by Fortinet’s purchase of Prospect Place, with vacancy rates falling by 10 basis points in Q4 and 70 basis points over the year, partly due to buildings being removed for conversion. The vacancy gap between downtown (29.5%) and suburban (20.6%) offices widened to 890 basis points. With private ownership rising and institutional presence decreasing, early 2025 could see additional space return through right-sizing events and mergers in the energy sector.
Calgary’s suburban office market enjoyed its strongest quarter since Q4 2018, supported by non-traditional sectors like education, healthcare, and social services driven by population growth. In the Beltline, 506,000 square feet of office space was removed for conversions, which contributed to a 360 basis point drop in suburban vacancy while the South submarket led with 168,000 square feet of positive net absorption, and sublease space declined significantly from its pandemic-induced peak.
