Statistics Canada recently released its Labour Force Survey for July 2024, indicating some interesting trends that could impact the Canadian real estate markets.
Employment was relatively stable, decreasing by a negligible 2,800 jobs in July compared to the previous month, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.4%. However, this does not reflect the variations seen across different demographics, industries, and regions, which may have regional economic and real estate implications.
Employment Trends and Rates
Year-over-year, employment increased by 346,000 jobs, marking a growth rate of 1.7%. Despite this overall growth, the employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed—dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 60.9% in July. This rate has been on a downward trajectory since reaching a high of 62.4% in January and February 2023, declining in nine of the past ten months.
In terms of employment types, there was a year-over-year increase of 122,000 part-time jobs (+3.4%), compared to a more modest rise of 224,000 full-time jobs (+1.4%). In July 2024 alone, full-time employment saw a slight increase of 62,000 jobs (+0.4%), while part-time employment decreased by 64,000 jobs (-1.7%).
Sectoral Employment Shifts
The employment landscape across various industries was mixed, with some sectors showing growth while others experienced declines. Year-over-year, the wholesale and retail trade sectors witnessed a significant drop, shedding 127,000 jobs (-4.2%). In July 2024 alone, employment in these sectors declined by 44,000 jobs (-1.5%). The finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing sectors also experienced a decrease, losing 15,000 jobs (-1.0%) in July.
Conversely, public administration employment rose by 20,000 jobs (+1.6%) in July, contributing to a year-over-year increase in public sector employment by 205,000 jobs (+4.8%). The transportation and warehousing sectors also saw gains, adding 15,000 jobs (+1.4%) in July, which partially offset declines observed earlier in the year.
Regional Employment Variations
Regional employment trends were varied, with some provinces experiencing growth while others saw declines.
Ontario led the way, adding 22,000 jobs (+0.3%) in July 2024, reflecting ongoing economic resilience. Full-time employment growth in Ontario was particularly strong, increasing by 70,000 jobs (+1.1%), which could support sustained demand for housing in the province’s urban centers.
Saskatchewan also reported a positive employment trend, with a rise of 6,700 jobs (+1.1%) in July, marking the second increase in three months.
On the other hand, Manitoba and Nova Scotia both experienced declines in employment, losing 5,400 jobs (-0.8%) and 4,800 jobs (-0.9%) respectively in July.
Labor Market Participation and Wage Growth
The labour force participation rate, a key indicator of economic health, fell by 0.3 percentage points to 65.0% in July 2024, the lowest rate since June 1998. This decline was more pronounced among younger demographics and core-aged women. However, average hourly wages increased by 5.2% year-over-year, reaching $34.97 in July.
Employment Trends by Demographics
Year-over-year employment trends across different age demographics highlight important shifts that may influence real estate market trends in Canada.
Employment among individuals aged 55 to 64 experienced a notable decline, with a reduction of 56,000 jobs (-1.9%). Youth employment also saw significant declines. Employment for those aged 15 to 24 dropped by 20,000 jobs (-1.5%) in July 2024.
On the other hand, the core working-age population (25 to 54 years old) exhibited stronger employment growth. Employment among this age group increased by 48,000 jobs (+0.7%) in July 2024.
For the full report and charts, view the Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey for July 2024. While the overall employment figures in Canada remained relatively stable in July 2024, underlying demographic, sectoral, and regional trends suggest a more nuanced picture which could have impacts on the Canadian real estate market.
