The western region surrounding the GTA Real Estate Market, comprising Guelph, Oakville-Milton, and Kitchener-Waterloo, demonstrated varying trends across the different municipalities, reflecting economic pressures.
Residential Sales
The residential sales in August 2024 showed a decline in all three municipality-regions: Guelph, Oakville-Milton, and Kitchener-Waterloo.
Guelph
The Guelph market experienced a 7.8% decrease in sales compared to August 2023, with 172 units sold in the month. This was 21.1% below the five-year average for the area, indicating weaker buyer demand despite continued interest in Guelph’s stable housing market.
Oakville-Milton
The Oakville-Milton area recorded 204 sales in August 2024, down by 5.1% year-over-year and 28.2% below the five-year average. Sales in this upscale market have been impacted by higher borrowing costs, leading to cautious behaviour among buyers.
Kitchener-Waterloo
This region witnessed a more significant slowdown, with home sales down by 10.5% year-over-year in August, totalling 489 transactions. The Kitchener-Waterloo market has been particularly sensitive to rate increases, and sales were 26.3% below the five-year average for the month.
Across all three regions, sales levels have been markedly below their historical averages, as rising interest rates continue to temper buyer activity.
New Listings and Inventory
Supply-side activity varied across the Western surrounding areas of the GTA.
Guelph
New listings in Guelph were down by 2.9% from August 2023, with 302 new residential listings hitting the market. Active listings in the region stand at 620, slightly above last year’s levels but still constrained compared to long-term norms.
Oakville-Milton
The Oakville-Milton market saw 421 new listings in August 2024, down 4.5% from a year earlier. The region currently has 825 active listings, as sellers remain hesitant due to uncertain price trends and buyer reluctance at current interest rates.
Kitchener-Waterloo
Kitchener-Waterloo experienced a slight increase in new listings, with 759 properties listed in August 2024, a 1.8% increase compared to the same period last year. Active listings totalled 1,390, providing more options for buyers, although inventory remains below what is needed to balance the market.
Inventory levels are mixed across these municipalities, with slightly higher listings in some regions while others face continued tight supply. However, buyer demand still appears subdued.
Prices
Average prices in Southern Ontario have shown resilience despite declining sales, though price growth has softened across all regions.
Guelph
The average home price in Guelph increased marginally by 1.1% year-over-year to $842,000. Detached homes remain the most sought-after property type, though affordability concerns are pushing more buyers towards townhomes and condominiums.
Oakville-Milton
Oakville-Milton continues to be one of the most expensive housing markets in Southern Ontario, with an average home price of $1.36 million in August 2024. This represents a 2.4% increase from last year. Detached homes in Oakville remain in high demand, although higher borrowing costs are keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines.
Kitchener-Waterloo
The average home price in Kitchener-Waterloo was $805,000 in August 2024, a modest 0.8% increase year-over-year. Detached homes continue to be the dominant segment of the market, but the region’s lower price point compared to the GTA is attracting buyers priced out of other areas.
Rental Market
Rental markets experienced mixed trends in these areas, according to Zumper.
Guelph
Guelph’s rental market has tightened over the past year, with vacancy rates dropping to under 2%. The average monthly rent for a one-bedroom apartment is around $1,850, while two-bedroom units rent for approximately $2,400.
Oakville-Milton
Oakville-Milton’s rental market remains competitive, especially for units in transit-accessible locations. Vacancy rates are hovering around 1.8%, while rents for a one-bedroom apartment are now averaging $2,100. Two-bedroom units are renting for about $2,800.
Kitchener-Waterloo
Kitchener-Waterloo’s rental market is similarly constrained, with vacancy rates under 2%. Average monthly rents for a one-bedroom unit have risen to around $1,950, and two-bedroom units are averaging $2,600.
Guelph experienced an unemployment rate: 4.7%, an increase of 0.8% from July 2024. This is 10.3% below the peak of June 2020 and remains below the long-term average. It had a total decline of 2,100 jobs in August 2024, comprising 1,200 fewer full-time jobs and 900 fewer part-time positions. Full-time employment is down 3,500 jobs compared to the peak in January 2024.
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo
The unemployment rate in this area was 7.1%, up by 0.6% from July 2024. This rate is 6% below the July 2020 peak but remains above the long-term average. The region lost 3,700 jobs in August 2024, including 2,700 full-time positions and 1,000 part-time jobs. Full-time employment is still down by 2,800 jobs from its peak in June 2024.
Toronto
Toronto had an unemployment rate: of 8%, a rise of 0.3% from July 2024. This rate is 7.1% below the July 2020 peak but remains above the long-term average. Toronto added 3,800 full-time jobs but lost 1,300 part-time jobs, resulting in a net increase of 2,500 jobs in August 2024. Full-time employment is still down by 11,000 jobs from the peak in June 2023.
Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence in Southern Ontario, including these three regions, is reflective of broader provincial trends, according to the Conference Board of Canada. In September, the Ontario-wide consumer confidence index remained cautiously optimistic, buoyed by stable employment numbers but tempered by inflation concerns and higher borrowing costs. The Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes continue to impact buying power, and many potential homebuyers have opted to delay purchases, contributing to softer sales activity across the province.
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