{"id":9731,"date":"2023-03-29T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-29T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca\/deep-dive-creb-2023-forecast-analysis\/"},"modified":"2023-10-24T04:30:14","modified_gmt":"2023-10-24T04:30:14","slug":"deep-dive-creb-2023-forecast-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca\/news\/deep-dive-creb-2023-forecast-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Deep Dive: CREB 2023 Forecast Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Going into 2023, the Calgary Real Estate Board, or CREB, released its 2023 Forecast Report<\/a>. This 24-page detailed report covers not only its predictions for real estate in the YYC area for 2023 but also the impactors of those anticipated trends.<\/p>\n

Interest Rate: The Great 2023 Impactor<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Off the hop, the first discussion point was one that is on the lips of REALTORS\u00ae, Mortgage Brokers, families, and investors alike– the interest rate.<\/p>\n

Since it’s been a heavily discussed topic both in practice and throughout Canadian Real Estate Wealth’s content, I won’t belabour it too much but to mention that inflation in 2022 faced by Canadians, like the rest of the world, has triggered significant rate hikes from the Bank of Canada.<\/p>\n

At the beginning of the year, the Bank of Canada’s rate was 0.25 percent. With persistent announcements, Canadians saw a rate climb to 4.25 percent by the end of 2022.<\/p>\n

One of the most notable 2022 predictions made by CREB was the following, “While economic growth is expected to slow, forecasters are not calling for a recession in the province [of Alberta]. At the same time, the strong flow of migrants to the province, along with job growth concentrated in generally higher-paid industries in Calgary is expected to offset some of the impacts that higher lending rates are having on the housing market.”<\/p>\n

We tapped trusted Real Estate Broker, namesake, and leader of the Jesse Davies Team<\/a>, Jesse Davies, for his expertise on whether the Calgary Real Estate Board’s prognostication is correct or off the mark. Davies shared with the Canadian Real Estate Wealth readership the benefit of his keen observations and 15 years of experience:<\/p>\n

\"The\"\"<\/p>\n

\u201cI couldn\u2019t agree more the Calgary market is performing very well given the circumstances of a high-interest rate environment in a very short amount of time. It’s almost a positive for the affordable Calgary market as buyers are having a hard time affording the escalated prices in other major markets in a high-interest rate environment.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

A contentious supposition made in CREB’s 2023 Forecast Report is that the decline in real estate sales that panged Calgary in 2014 due to a dramatic drop in energy costs and consequent wide-spread job loss, the exit of migrants and ‘economic contraction’ actually helped the city to fair better than other major cities in Canada due to a comparative surplus of housing inventory.<\/p>\n

The Report posited that “While Calgary and Edmonton are not immune to the impacts of inflation and higher lending rates, they have not experienced the same level of price gains and are not expected to go through the same level of declines\u2026thanks to higher commodity prices, a shift in interprovincial migration and relative affordability, Alberta is not expected to face the adjustments as other parts of the country.”<\/p>\n

The Numbers In The Report Seem To Support CREB’s Hypothesis<\/strong><\/h2>\n

A comparison of major cities’ average housing prices from 2014 to 2022 breaks down as such:<\/p>\n